Among the many strategic blunders made by Vladimir Putin in attacking Ukraine, arguably the biggest was to assume that it would stop the expansion of Nato. It has had the opposite effect, with Finland and Sweden, both traditionally neutral countries, now ready to sign up to the alliance. They have seen what has happened to a Russian neighbour deemed by Moscow to have stepped out of line and are understandably alarmed that the same fate might be visited upon them.
Finland has historical cause for concern given the invasion by Soviet forces in 1939 which they managed to repel for months before being forced to cede 10 per cent of their territory. Red Army casualties were huge and its poor performance in the field encouraged Hitler to invade Russia in the belief it would be easily defeated. Finland retains conscription and could field an army of 280,000 tomorrow – four times the UK’s capacity.
Sweden’s neutrality dates to the end of the Napoleonic Wars. Though it was theoretically abolished with its accession to the European Union in 1995, Sweden has remained non-aligned in regard to foreign and security policy.
Both countries were visited by Boris Johnson for talks today about what such a move might entail and to sign mutual security pacts. The immediate implication will be to stretch Nato’s borders with Russia by another 800 miles, from Turkey to the Arctic Circle.
A decision by both countries is imminent, reflecting the geopolitical upheaval caused by an invasion carried out ostensibly to stop Ukraine joining Nato, even though such an eventuality was seen as improbable. Now all states within Russia’s malign orbit will be concerned for their security if they are outside the alliance, notably Moldova.
The Baltic states, which have long felt threatened by Russian revanchism, are firmly in Nato and rely on Article 5 protection – that an attack on them would represent a casus belli for the entire 30-nation bloc. Neither Finland or Sweden would receive that guarantee until their application has been accepted. Until that point, there is a moment of vulnerability with Russia threatening the Finns with “a military technical response” if they do try to join.
Given what we have seen in Ukraine, Nato should expedite their requests to accede. They are entirely compatible with membership and will bring significant expertise to the bloc.
Among the many strategic blunders made by Vladimir Putin in attacking Ukraine, arguably the biggest was to assume that it would stop the expansion of Nato. It has had the opposite effect, with Finland and Sweden, both traditionally neutral countries, now ready to sign up to the alliance. They have seen what has happened to a Russian neighbour deemed by Moscow to have stepped out of line and are understandably alarmed that the same fate might be visited upon them.
Finland has historical cause for concern given the invasion by Soviet forces in 1939 which they managed to repel for months before being forced to cede 10 per cent of their territory. Red Army casualties were huge and its poor performance in the field encouraged Hitler to invade Russia in the belief it would be easily defeated. Finland retains conscription and could field an army of 280,000 tomorrow – four times the UK’s capacity.
Sweden’s neutrality dates to the end of the Napoleonic Wars. Though it was theoretically abolished with its accession to the European Union in 1995, Sweden has remained non-aligned in regard to foreign and security policy.
Both countries were visited by Boris Johnson for talks today about what such a move might entail and to sign mutual security pacts. The immediate implication will be to stretch Nato’s borders with Russia by another 800 miles, from Turkey to the Arctic Circle.
A decision by both countries is imminent, reflecting the geopolitical upheaval caused by an invasion carried out ostensibly to stop Ukraine joining Nato, even though such an eventuality was seen as improbable. Now all states within Russia’s malign orbit will be concerned for their security if they are outside the alliance, notably Moldova.
The Baltic states, which have long felt threatened by Russian revanchism, are firmly in Nato and rely on Article 5 protection – that an attack on them would represent a casus belli for the entire 30-nation bloc. Neither Finland or Sweden would receive that guarantee until their application has been accepted. Until that point, there is a moment of vulnerability with Russia threatening the Finns with “a military technical response” if they do try to join.
Given what we have seen in Ukraine, Nato should expedite their requests to accede. They are entirely compatible with membership and will bring significant expertise to the bloc.