We all congratulate Lib Dem Helen Morgan on her victory at Thursday’s North Shropshire by-election. At the same time, let us recognize that with a proud record of public service in the military and NHS, the very antithesis of a career politician, Neil Shastri-Hurst was an excellent Conservative candidate. Just as I did after failing to win the Chesham and Amersham by-election in June, Neil will now delve deeply into a study of self-reflection to determine what more he could personally have done. He should not dwell in that space for too long as this thumping defeat for the Conservatives was clearly not his fault.
The total collapse of the Labour vote in North Shropshire has gone largely unreported. All the excited talk of swings and shares of votes ignores the reality of differential turnout. Surely those who previously wanted Comrade Corbyn to be our Prime Minister remain highly motivated to “land one on Boris” when given the chance! So I suggest that the nine thousand lost Labour votes went directly to the Lib Dem corner without passing go (accounting for three quarters of the increase in their vote!). So the heady Lib Dem claim that it was the successful recruitment of Brexit-voting Tory voters into the open arms of EU-fanatic Ed Davey “wot won it” is somewhat wide of the mark. As in Chesham and Amersham, stay-at-home Tories were again the real story of the night.
Conservative voters who want to register their displeasure with a Conservative government do so very effectively at a by-election by simply staying at home; for lifelong Tory voters, this is a big step! Given an 80-seat majority, with zero chance of a change in government, they can express this anger without risk. In Chesham and Amersham, stay-at-home Tories were expressing their deep resentment of HS2, opposition to feared planning reforms and anger at the state of local roads; all of which was heard loud and clear. In North Shropshire, stay-at-home Tories are surely calling time on the endless succession of self-inflicted train wrecks and for an urgent resumption of sound government.
Contrary to the giddy rhetoric of some, the government’s legislative fuel tank is still running on full. The £36 billion package to reform the NHS and social care tackles issues that successive governments have ducked for decades. The Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Bill gives the eleven thousand extra police officers already recruited the powers and tools they need to keep us all safe. The Nationality and Borders Bill should seriously curtail the dangerous small boat crossings of the Channel. The Chancellor’s well thought through reduction to the Universal Credit taper rate and increase to work allowances gives the lowest paid workers a tax cut worth £2.2 billion just in time for Christmas.
And just this last week the government announced a formal consultation on a UK Bill of Rights to re-assert the primacy of UK law, signed an historic deal with Australia unlocking over £10 billion of free trade and enshrined the Armed Forces Covenant into law.
All of this at the same time as taking the immensely difficult decisions to steer our country through a global pandemic whilst maintaining record levels of employment, delivering a world-leading vaccine rollout and now the fastest booster programme in Europe.
But very few voters in North Shropshire heard any of this above the deafening noise of crashing carriages and tangled train tracks. The Prime Minister knows what he needs to do. To be the best leader that we know he can be, he must surround himself with the very best talent; step forward Jeremy Hunt and Tom Tugendhat to join the top table. He has to restore discipline in the ranks; start by firing anyone who publicly criticizes outstanding public servants like Chris Whitty. And just like any effective CEO, he should set and publish timebound “must-do” delivery objectives for every member of his Cabinet; the results of which must align to enable the Chancellor to get back to the best levelling-up device known to man: cutting taxes for hardworking families as soon as possible and certainly before the next General Election.
During my thirty years in business all around the world, the best trading turnarounds I have seen have been executed by strong and charismatic CEOs who find their backs against the wall with hostile inbound issues, shareholders, and competitors on all fronts. These are the testing conditions that bring out the very best in leaders. Now is the time for our Prime Minister to rediscover his very best.
