In the early days of the pandemic, the likes of Germany were held up as shining examples of how to deal with Covid. Commentators glibly praised the then-chancellor Angela Merkel’s scientific background, as well as the relatively advanced German testing architecture.
Sweden, by contrast, was deemed almost to be a rogue state. Its public health officials had decided not to recommend a full lockdown, relying instead on voluntary changes to behaviour. They argued that it would take years to see which approach to Covid was the correct one, so it would be better to avoid untested measures. The other consideration was the collateral damage of lockdown: the missed cancer diagnoses, the cancelled hospital appointments, and the lost education.
They appear to have been vindicated. The World Health Organisation released figures yesterday estimating that the true death toll from the pandemic was in fact nearly 15 million, with some countries’ official figures an underestimate. The measure used by the WHO was excess deaths – how many extra people died than would ordinarily have been expected to die, so it includes fatalities caused by, for example, an inability to access healthcare for other conditions. In 2020 and 2021, the global average was 96 per 100,000 people. The UK’s figure was 109, Spain’s was 111 – and Germany’s was 116.
Sweden had just 56 excess deaths per 100,000. Will those who accused its leaders of reckless irresponsibility apologise? At the very least, the research demands that the Covid inquiry in the UK ask whether more lives might have been saved in the round had the Government chosen not to enforce a compulsory lockdown.
In the early days of the pandemic, the likes of Germany were held up as shining examples of how to deal with Covid. Commentators glibly praised the then-chancellor Angela Merkel’s scientific background, as well as the relatively advanced German testing architecture.
Sweden, by contrast, was deemed almost to be a rogue state. Its public health officials had decided not to recommend a full lockdown, relying instead on voluntary changes to behaviour. They argued that it would take years to see which approach to Covid was the correct one, so it would be better to avoid untested measures. The other consideration was the collateral damage of lockdown: the missed cancer diagnoses, the cancelled hospital appointments, and the lost education.
They appear to have been vindicated. The World Health Organisation released figures yesterday estimating that the true death toll from the pandemic was in fact nearly 15 million, with some countries’ official figures an underestimate. The measure used by the WHO was excess deaths – how many extra people died than would ordinarily have been expected to die, so it includes fatalities caused by, for example, an inability to access healthcare for other conditions. In 2020 and 2021, the global average was 96 per 100,000 people. The UK’s figure was 109, Spain’s was 111 – and Germany’s was 116.
Sweden had just 56 excess deaths per 100,000. Will those who accused its leaders of reckless irresponsibility apologise? At the very least, the research demands that the Covid inquiry in the UK ask whether more lives might have been saved in the round had the Government chosen not to enforce a compulsory lockdown.