Of all the results announced yesterday, the most consequential could well turn out to be those for elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly. It would be wrong to assume that a relatively strong performance by the hardline nationalists, Sinn Fein, represents rising support for a United Ireland. There is little evidence that public opinion in the Province has swung behind a border poll, and Sinn Fein focused its campaign on cost of living issues rather than constitutional matters. The Unionist vote was more split than it has historically been, while many voters migrated towards the centrist Alliance party.
Nevertheless, Northern Irish politics is likely to become more unstable in the coming months, not less. The proximate cause is continuing anger about the Northern Ireland protocol, agreed as part of the Brexit deal, which treats the Province differently to the rest of the UK for trade purposes. Unionist parties consider it to be an outrageous imposition that undermines their place within the Union.
The Government has attempted to renegotiate the protocol with the EU, but with little luck. The Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss, had hoped that a new deal could be reached earlier in the year, but that deadline passed with nothing to show for it. There had been talk of new legislation in Westminster that would allow ministers to override parts of the protocol unilaterally. It is unclear whether even that will now happen.
The status quo is clearly unsustainable. Unless something changes, it may be impossible for the parties at Stormont to form a power-sharing administration. What is the Government going to do about it?
Of all the results announced yesterday, the most consequential could well turn out to be those for elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly. It would be wrong to assume that a relatively strong performance by the hardline nationalists, Sinn Fein, represents rising support for a United Ireland. There is little evidence that public opinion in the Province has swung behind a border poll, and Sinn Fein focused its campaign on cost of living issues rather than constitutional matters. The Unionist vote was more split than it has historically been, while many voters migrated towards the centrist Alliance party.
Nevertheless, Northern Irish politics is likely to become more unstable in the coming months, not less. The proximate cause is continuing anger about the Northern Ireland protocol, agreed as part of the Brexit deal, which treats the Province differently to the rest of the UK for trade purposes. Unionist parties consider it to be an outrageous imposition that undermines their place within the Union.
The Government has attempted to renegotiate the protocol with the EU, but with little luck. The Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss, had hoped that a new deal could be reached earlier in the year, but that deadline passed with nothing to show for it. There had been talk of new legislation in Westminster that would allow ministers to override parts of the protocol unilaterally. It is unclear whether even that will now happen.
The status quo is clearly unsustainable. Unless something changes, it may be impossible for the parties at Stormont to form a power-sharing administration. What is the Government going to do about it?