The Labour Party has, quite sensibly, stayed out of the political car crash that has enveloped the government and the Conservative Party in the last 48 hours.
Now that Boris Johnson has committed to becoming the country’s next former prime minister, they may find the political spotlight more difficult to avoid. Yes, they will attempt to make as much hay as possible while the sun is shining on the distasteful and dramatic events that finally forced Johnson to accept political reality. And who’s to say that the Conservatives, having been put through the grinder by their current leader, will not continue to implode in an undignified and electorally toxic fashion?
But the bets are that they will not, that they will instead breathe a deep sigh of relief now that the melodramas and controversies of the Johnson era are drawing to a close, and get on with the task of choosing a new, competent, if less entertaining leader.
As Neil Kinnock discovered to his chagrin after John Major replaced Baroness Thatcher as prime minister at the end of 1990, the public often tire quickly of going over old ground and rehashing the political dramas of the recent past. Instead they prefer to re-appraise what the two main parties are offering in the way of change.
Kinnock, at that time, had been leader of his party for more than seven years, while Major was brand spanking new. Whispers in the shadow cabinet that Labour also required some cosmetic surgery to keep up with its rival were never anything more than that: whispers. But sager heads concluded that the party was at a distinct disadvantage; they turned out to be right.
To what extent will Labour, as this year draws to an end and voters get used to their new prime minister, welcome the renewed focus on Keir Starmer and what he is offering the country? A similar question might be asked of Nicola Sturgeon, who has shamelessly, cynically and repeatedly invoked Johnson as the English bogey-man who is threatening to burn the Scottish flag and sell Scotland’s children into slavery.
A new political landscape beckons and the uncertainty that hangs over Downing Street is replicated in the Conservative Party’s opponents.
Starmer does not yet have Kinnock’s longevity in the job. More importantly, unlike Kinnock, Starmer has not yet been tested at a general election, much less been rejected by the voters. His grey, bank manager persona, while appearing boring in comparison to Johnson’s, was marketed as a reassuring antidote to the current prime minister’s unpredictable bombast. But that schtick won’t fly any more once Johnson’s successor has been installed in Number 10.
Voters might well consider that the change they wanted has already come about, just as Major represented the change many wanted to see in 1990.
Remainers and rejoiners will be rejoicing today. They should enjoy their victory while it lasts; a sensible Conservative Party, if it still exists, will not fail to capitalise on the last two days’ drama.
