At the outset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, May 9 was seen by many analysts as the likely end of the operation. The assumption was that Moscow’s overwhelming military would soon subjugate its neighbour, forcing a surrender and the removal of the government in Kyiv to be replaced by a pro-Kremlin leadership. This was to be completed by today, when Russia commemorates the victory of Soviet forces over Nazi Germany in 1945.
Not only has Vladimir Putin failed to conquer Ukraine but his army has become bogged down in a war of attrition in the east and is losing ground even there. He underestimated the resilience and courage of the Ukrainian people and the unity of the West in the face of aggression, while grossly overestimating the competence of his military.
Putin was not alone in this. Nato also thought Ukraine would not last long, yet all these received wisdoms now have to be revised – with considerable geo-political ramifications.
So far, despite what by any measure is a disaster for the Kremlin, the regime has managed to convince a credulous population that the “special military operation” has been going to plan and that any setbacks are the result of having to confront the might of Nato, not just Ukraine. But this line is hard to hold as the casualties mount up and Russia counts the cost of destroyed hardware. Soon, the impact of economic sanctions will start to be felt by the Russian people.
Many mothers have already had to bury their sons and, as the death toll grows, it becomes harder for Putin to maintain that a military success is taking place in Ukraine. No doubt at today’s Victory Day parade, Russia will deploy large numbers of personnel to march through Red Square, but are they capable of fighting effectively?
Western planners fear Putin will formally declare war on Ukraine in order to mobilise reservists to increase the deployment to the Ukrainian war substantially. But in doing so he would be admitting to his people that the stories they have been fed for weeks about a Russian triumph were false.
As the atrocities continue – with the deaths of scores of people sheltering in a school the latest – the Kremlin is at a crossroads. It needs to decide whether to cut its losses or to increase both the misery of the Ukrainian people it purports to be defending and the vast cost to Russia. Whatever Putin does, this is not his victory day.
At the outset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, May 9 was seen by many analysts as the likely end of the operation. The assumption was that Moscow’s overwhelming military would soon subjugate its neighbour, forcing a surrender and the removal of the government in Kyiv to be replaced by a pro-Kremlin leadership. This was to be completed by today, when Russia commemorates the victory of Soviet forces over Nazi Germany in 1945.
Not only has Vladimir Putin failed to conquer Ukraine but his army has become bogged down in a war of attrition in the east and is losing ground even there. He underestimated the resilience and courage of the Ukrainian people and the unity of the West in the face of aggression, while grossly overestimating the competence of his military.
Putin was not alone in this. Nato also thought Ukraine would not last long, yet all these received wisdoms now have to be revised – with considerable geo-political ramifications.
So far, despite what by any measure is a disaster for the Kremlin, the regime has managed to convince a credulous population that the “special military operation” has been going to plan and that any setbacks are the result of having to confront the might of Nato, not just Ukraine. But this line is hard to hold as the casualties mount up and Russia counts the cost of destroyed hardware. Soon, the impact of economic sanctions will start to be felt by the Russian people.
Many mothers have already had to bury their sons and, as the death toll grows, it becomes harder for Putin to maintain that a military success is taking place in Ukraine. No doubt at today’s Victory Day parade, Russia will deploy large numbers of personnel to march through Red Square, but are they capable of fighting effectively?
Western planners fear Putin will formally declare war on Ukraine in order to mobilise reservists to increase the deployment to the Ukrainian war substantially. But in doing so he would be admitting to his people that the stories they have been fed for weeks about a Russian triumph were false.
As the atrocities continue – with the deaths of scores of people sheltering in a school the latest – the Kremlin is at a crossroads. It needs to decide whether to cut its losses or to increase both the misery of the Ukrainian people it purports to be defending and the vast cost to Russia. Whatever Putin does, this is not his victory day.